August 11, 2005: The Politics Of Glory

If the title of this post strikes you as familiar, then you’re probably a baseball fan or have read Bill James’ book Whatever Happened to The Hall of Fame, which was originally titled The Politics of Glory (How Baseball’s Hall of Fame Really Works). I bought James’ book when it was first published in 1994. From time to time, I still enjoy reading it, which, of course, makes it one of my favorite books of all time. I have no idea, however, when or why the publisher changed the original title, which better captures the reader’s attention and book’s essence.

In The Politics of Glory, James makes a compelling case that the determination of who merits inclusion in the Hall of Fame often hinges more than it should on a baseball player’s relative popularity among the voters. This sometimes results in inconsistent selections to Cooperstown. Although Bill James is a master at applying statistical analysis to prove his points (he did, after all, pioneer sabermetrics), he also has a gift for advocacy, which makes his writing especially enjoyable. Yes, he’ll refer to Fibonacci Win Points, and he’ll break out those bar graphs, but when he does it, it’s like when you’re in the doctor’s office waiting for that tetanus shot, and you ask the doctor, “Hey, when is the shot coming,” and the doctor replies, “Son, I just gave it to you.” Bill James’ uses statistics like that.

In a perfect world--where the Red Sox don’t have to wait four score and seven years to win a World Series and everyone loves children and understands baseball like Bill James--those who determine who gets in to Cooperstown would be guided by some specific criteria and methodology for evaluating players. As the election process now stands, however, James reveals that the determination of who merits inclusion (and who doesn’t) is arbitrary, or “political.” For example, one of the least qualified selections to the Hall of Fame, according to James, is Ray Schalk. Here are some of his career numbers:

Games 1762 AB 5306 Runs 579 H 1345 2B 199 3B 49 HR 11 RBI 594 SB 177 CS 69 BB 638 SO 355 AVG .253

Now, if you’re not familiar with baseball (and if you’re not, I’m glad you’re still reading this), you should understand that there are certain career benchmarks that will usually all but guarantee a player’s selection to the Hall of Fame. For example, every eligible player who has hit over 500 home runs has been inducted into the hall. For pitchers, everyone who has won over 300 games has won election. Until Pete Rose entered the picture, every player who had amassed over 3,000 hits could expect to receive the votes for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. But Pete changed that when he bet on baseball. And everyone knows that you can’t bet on baseball and become a member of The Hall of Fame--even if you have 4,256 hits, which is more hits than anyone else who has ever player Major League Baseball and 2,911 more hits than Ray Schalk, who is in the Hall, ever amassed.

So who is Ray Schalk? Ray Schalk was the catcher for the 1919 Chicago White Sox, or, as you may have heard them nicknamed, The Black Sox. Several players on that team conspired with gamblers and threw games to the Cincinnati Reds (oh, the irony, Pete!) in the World Series. Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis later banned several players. Schalk, who was not in on the conspiracy, was not one of them, and several decades later the Veterans Committee elected him to the Hall of Fame.

In his book, Bill James suggests that Schalk’s selection to the HOF resulted from those who remembered Schalk as one of the few honest members of the 1919 Black Sox, and the statistics support his point. Over his career, Schalk simply did not compile the offensive statistics consistent with the calibre of the “great” catchers. In other terms, Schalk’s selection to Cooperstown is akin to inducting Jim Sundberg, a merely good, but not great, catcher. (Sundberg is, in fact, a member of the Texas Rangers’ Hall of Fame.)

In major league baseball, catchers are, of course, relied on for their defensive skills. A catcher who can’t field his position or make a throw to second base isn’t going to last a long time in major league baseball--unless, of course, he’s someone like Dale Murphy whose hitting is so phenomenal that the manager moves him into the outfield in order to get his bat into the lineup.

You should remember Dale Murphy. He played for the Atlanta Braves in the late 1970s and the 1980s until the team traded him to the Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta Braves fans, like WabiSabi, may recall Murphy began his career as a catcher. My earliest baseball card of Dale Murphy (Topps 1979) lists his position as “C-1B.” Murphy wasn’t a great defensive catcher. According to one website, he “had chronic throwing problems, occasionally hitting his own pitcher attempting to throw out runners at second base.” After the Braves moved the Murph to the outfield, however, the rest is history, and Murphy dominated his league in home runs, runs batted in, and earned two MVP awards.

Jim thinks Dale Murphy should be in the Hall of Fame, and I would love to see that happen. When Bill James first wrote The Politics of Glory, he even predicted Murphy’s election to the Hall of Fame would occur in 2008. But after a brief stint with the Colorado Rockies in 1993, Dale Murphy retired from baseball at age 37. Generally, a player becomes eligible for election to the Hall of Fame six years after his retirement, which means Murphy became eligible for induction in 1999. But six years later Murphy still isn’t in the Hall of Fame, and the odds are that he won’t see induction into Cooperstown anytime soon. Why not?

To answer the previous question, we need to look at Murphy’s numbers. Here they are:

Games 2180 AB 7960 R 1197 H 2111 2B 350 3B 39 HR 398 RBI 1266 SB 161 CS 68 BB 986 SO 1748 BA .265

Over eighteen seasons, Murphy gathered about 2,100 hits, 400 home runs, over 1,250 runs batted in while batting .265 and striking out over 1,700 times. He also added speed to his power by swiping over 150 bases (including 30 stolen bases in 1983 when he hit thirty-six home runs, making him a member of the “30/30” club). Although Murphy led the league several times in hitting home runs and driving in runs, and led the Braves to the playoffs, he didn’t achieve those magic milestones that we often associate with election to the Hall of Fame. He never hit more than 500 (or even 400) home runs or 3,000 (or even 2,500) hits. He doesn’t have over 200 stolen bases. He struck out often. And his batting average is, well, simply “average” for a major leaguer. So why do I want to see Dale Murphy in the Hall of Fame? I want to see him in Cooperstown because he was a nice guy who played by the rules.

Nobody’s going to suggest that Dale Murphy used steroids to increase his home run totals. It’s simply ridiculous. But we can debate whether Dale Murphy was “merely good” or “really great.” There’s no question, that Murphy has the credentials to spark a Cooperstown debate. But in cases of players--like the Murph--who exemplify class both on and off the field, I think character should count for something in the selection process for the Hall of Fame. That also means if a player used steroids to boost his home run totals, we should consider that, too, before we consider allowing that person into the Hall of Fame.

Of course, we won’t know for at least a couple years how the allegations of steroid use will affect any particular candidate for Cooperstown. But in my view, if the evidence reveals a player used steroids, then I think we need to reconsider the traditional benchmarks of a Hall of Fame career when determining that player’s eligibility for the Hall of Fame. Consider the following career statistics for this player, who many believe merits induction into the Hall of Fame:

Games 1874 AB 6187 R 1167 H 1626 2B 252 3B 6 HR 583 RBI 1414 SB 12 CS 8 BB 1317 SO 1596 BA .263

Now let’s compare this player’s line to Dale Murphy’s:

Player X: Games 1874 AB 6187 R 1167 H 1626 2B 252 3B 6 HR 583 RBI 1414 SB 12 CS 8 BB 1317 SO 1596 BA .263

The Murph: Games 2180 AB 7960 R 1197 H 2111 2B 350 3B 39 HR 398 RBI 1266 SB 161 CS 68 BB 986 SO 1748 BA .265

The Murph played more games than “Player X” with more at bats, more runs (though it’s basically equal), more hits, more doubles, more triples, and more stolen bases. The players’ averages are basically equal. But “Player X” has a bigger edge in home runs (nearly 200 more than Murphy), runs batted in, and bases on balls, and he struck out a bit less. Or, in simple terms, “Player X” hit more dingers and drove in more runs in fewer games.

Now, if you ask me, Dale Murphy’s career reflects a better complete player than “Player X.” “Player X” didn’t run. He cracked a lot of home runs, and everyone who has hit as many homers as “Player X” is in the Hall of Fame. That’s why many think “Player X” should be in the Hall, and it’s the same reason why The Murph hasn’t received the votes yet. The Murph slugged “only” 389 homers. But consider, too, that nobody accused players in his era of using steroids to boost their home run totals. That doesn’t hold true today for players who were active in the latter half of the 1990s--of whom “Player X” was one. And if you haven’t guessed by now, “Player X” is first baseman Mark McGwire.

If I were choosing players for my “Field of Dreams” team, and I had to choose between Dale Murphy and Mark McGwire in their primes, I would take Murphy over McGwire. I’m sure that I’m not alone in this pick, but I also know that I’m not in the majority either. I think that’s unfortunate because Murphy was a really great player whose numbers suffer when they’re compared to the totals of today’s sluggers.

You see, Dale Murphy didn’t use steroids. And to paraphrase a line from Al Pacino in the movie And Justice For All, if a player who used steroids to achieve amazing home run numbers is allowed to walk free into the Hall of Fame, then something really wrong is goin’ on here. Something really wrong is goin’ on here if a guy can inject or ingest steroids to pad his home run totals to get into Cooperstown while a player like the Murph has to buy a ticket to get in there.

As Leo Durocher once remarked, “Nice guys finish last.” I hope the Veterans Committee elects Dale Murphy to the Hall of Fame and proves him wrong.